Battleground States
This Election - the Battleground States are Critical
We have narrowed our analysis down to nine critical swing States: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
We are continuously looking at the most recent polls from these States. This analysis shows just how close this Election will be.
USA Decides Predictor: Critical Battleground States
Currently (November 2nd, 2020) : USA Decides shows Biden at 48.78% and Trump at 46.50%
On October 15th, 2020 : USA Decides had Biden at 48.98% and Trump at 45.02%
THE RACE IS CLOSE ON THE FINAL DAY - WITH BIDEN MAINTAINING A SMALL LEAD
USA Decides Predictor: Details of the nine Critical Battleground States - November 2nd, 2020:
Arizona has Biden at 47.9% and Trump at 47.0%: a swing of 3.1% towards Trump, since October 15th, 2020.
Florida has Biden at 48.1% and Trump at 46.3%: a swing of 0.4% towards Biden, since October 15th, 2020.
Georgia has Biden at 47.6% and Trump at 47.8%: a swing of 2.2% towards Trump, since October 15th, 2020.
Michigan has Biden at 50.3% and Trump at 45.2%: a swing of 2.1% towards Trump, since October 15th, 2020.
Minnesota has Biden at 48.0% and Trump at 43.7%: a swing of 2.3% towards Trump, since October 15th, 2020.
North Carolina has Biden at 47.6% and Trump at 47.8%: a swing of 2.9% towards Trump, since October 15th, 2020.
Ohio has Biden at 49.2% and Trump at 49.8%: a swing of 0.4% towards Trump, since October 15th, 2020.
Pennsylvania has Biden at 49.3% and Trump at 46.6%: a swing of 2.9% towards Trump, since October 15th, 2020.
Wisconsin has Biden at 51.0% and Trump at 44.3%: a swing of 0.4% towards Biden, since October 15th, 2020.
Factoring in the polling variance from 2016
In 2016, most pollsters mis-calculated results in the Battleground States.
Examples:
Polling in Wisconsin predicted a win for Clinton - the polls were off by 7.2%, and Trump won the State.
Polling in Michigan predicted a win for Clinton - the polls were off by 3.7%, and Trump won the State.
Polling in Pennsylvania predicted a win for Clinton - the polls were off by 2.6%, and Trump won the State.
Below we are factoring in the differences between the polling averages and the actual results in the Key Battleground States, and then making a prediction of the outcome in these critical States, tabulating the final results and making our most accurate Election Prediction:
Currently (November 2nd, 2020) : USADecides predicts:
Biden at: 290 Electoral Votes
Trump at: 248 Electoral Votes
A Win For: Biden